It is hard not to be shaken by the current economic landscape and even more difficult to stop watching the financial news. Our business is finance, specifically small business lending, and our mind is preoccupied by the implications of tariffs, deficits, potential government shutdowns, the rising rate of the 10-year, and the endemic decline of the dollar.
I speak regularly with my close friend Dan Stella, a now-retired lender who spent an illustrious career at several large banks. Earlier in the week during a call, when I was listing what our borrowers are facing, he said: “So Nimi, what’s new? This isn’t your first rodeo.”
He is, of course, right; as I counted back, I realized that this in, in fact, my fifth rodeo (1991, 2001, 2008, 2020, 2025). And somehow, we emerged stronger than ever from each, and somehow seeds that were sewn in the depth of a crisis grew into bountiful trees. Through it all we also learned some lessons, getting smarter each time.
This time around, in a manner similar to the 2020 crisis, I am fortunate to be part of an organization that helps sew those seeds. Small businesses have always been the engine of growth of our economy and with the support of the US Small Business Administration (SBA), small businesses and this time around it will be no different. I anticipate that we will once again survive the turmoil and emerge stronger than ever.
I also believe that the current economic uncertainty creates great opportunities for small businesses to expand and we (and lenders like us) have the financial tools and motivation to assist. Here’s why I feel so confident about this:
To start, my view on the economy is that it is fundamentally strong. Unemployment is low, consumer sentiment is holding, inflation is in check, and depending on the region, the economy is still growing. Yes, we can quickly descend into a recession, but if we do it will be shallow and short. Yes, inflation is always lurking, but we have a phenomenal Fed who is laser-focused on prices.
The economic landscape presents a unique opportunity for small business owners to grow and strengthen through acquisitions, real estate purchases, recapitalizations, and strategic investment in marketing. Specifically:
- Commercial real estate prices are flattening and, in some cases, beginning to decline. Whether it’s the result of aging landlords ready to pack it in, maturity of interest-only mortgages, and/or decreased demand for some asset classes, cap rates are now more attractive for buyers than they’ve been in many years. If your business is currently renting, it is likely time to consider owning. We can help with an SBA 7a loan for rent replacement.
- Institutional private equity, which started to emerge from its slump in 2024, is sliding back into inactivity, removing some competition for good businesses.
- The weakening of the dollar is increasing the opportunities for US businesses to export their goods and services, supplementing an already strong “onshoring” trend. Watch for my May blog (which will be out in a few weeks) as it will be all about that specific topic.
- The secular trend of “moving south” is still in full force, with many regions experiencing double digit growth. With the ongoing prevalence of remote work, large businesses are finding it much easier to pack up and move. Those large employers create regional needs for restaurants, childcare centers, HVAC (yes, it’s hot in the South and getting hotter every year), landscapers, plumbers, and electricians.
- The economy continues to grow, and once we are through the current phase, it will grow even faster. It’s important to keep a close eye on liquidity and costs to weather the storm, but it is just as important to prepare for a doubling of the growth rate once we emerge from this state.
But all this takes capital, and the fact is that many lenders are pulling back.
This is where small business lenders like Gulf Coast Small Business Lending come in. We provide SBA loans, USDA financing, and lines of credit (as well as conventional term loans for franchised operations). The SBA 7a and the USDA B&I programs are especially well-suited to support small businesses:
- The SBA and USDA continue to support small businesses by working with banks to provide access to capital. This is all we do at Gulf Coast Small Business Lending.
- The flagship program of the SBA, the 7a loan program, does not require collateral, provides high advance rates and long amortization, and offers competitive rates. We provide capital for business acquisitions, refinancing, real estate purchase, construction, partner-buyouts and start-ups.
- While some banks and SBA lenders are pulling back, we continue to expand and expect the next 2 years to be our busiest. We apply the same criteria we’ve always used: strong, experienced operators and good businesses.
So yes, these are unusual times. But it’s business as usual here.
If you are interested in discussing an SBA loan, please reach out to our team of experienced SBA professionals. You’ll find their contact information here: https://gulfcoastsba.com/our-people/