Nimi Natan

It is hard not to be shaken by the current economic landscape and even more difficult to stop watching the financial news.  Our business is finance, specifically small business lending, and our mind is preoccupied by the implications of tariffs, deficits, potential government shutdowns, the rising rate of the 10-year, and the endemic decline of the dollar.  

I speak regularly with my close friend Dan Stella, a now-retired lender who spent an illustrious career at several large banks.  Earlier in the week during a call, when I was listing what our borrowers are facing, he said: “So Nimi, what’s new?  This isn’t your first rodeo.” 

He is, of course, right; as I counted back, I realized that this in, in fact, my fifth rodeo (1991, 2001, 2008, 2020, 2025). And somehow, we emerged stronger than ever from each, and somehow seeds that were sewn in the depth of a crisis grew into bountiful trees.  Through it all we also learned some lessons, getting smarter each time. 

This time around, in a manner similar to the 2020 crisis, I am fortunate to be part of an organization that helps sew those seeds.  Small businesses have always been the engine of growth of our economy and with the support of the US Small Business Administration (SBA), small businesses and this time around it will be no different.  I anticipate that we will once again survive the turmoil and emerge stronger than ever.  

I also believe that the current economic uncertainty creates great opportunities for small businesses to expand and we (and lenders like us) have the financial tools and motivation to assist.  Here’s why I feel so confident about this:

To start, my view on the economy is that it is fundamentally strong.  Unemployment is low, consumer sentiment is holding, inflation is in check, and depending on the region, the economy is still growing.  Yes, we can quickly descend into a recession, but if we do it will be shallow and short.  Yes, inflation is always lurking, but we have a phenomenal Fed who is laser-focused on prices.

The economic landscape presents a unique opportunity for small business owners to grow and strengthen through acquisitions, real estate purchases, recapitalizations, and strategic investment in marketing. Specifically:

1. Commercial real estate prices are flattening and, in some cases, beginning to decline.  Whether it’s the result of aging landlords ready to pack it in, maturity of interest-only mortgages, and/or decreased demand for some asset classes, cap rates are now more attractive for buyers than they’ve been in many years.  If your business is currently renting, it is likely time to consider owning. We can help with an SBA 7a loan for rent replacement.
2. Institutional private equity, which started to emerge from its slump in 2024, is sliding back into inactivity, removing some competition for good businesses.
3. The weakening of the dollar is increasing the opportunities for US businesses to export their goods and services, supplementing an already strong “onshoring” trend.  Watch for my May blog (which will be out in a few weeks) as it will be all about that specific topic. 
4. The secular trend of “moving south” is still in full force, with many regions experiencing double digit growth. With the ongoing prevalence of remote work, large businesses are finding it much easier to pack up and move.  Those large employers create regional needs for restaurants, childcare centers, HVAC (yes, it’s hot in the South and getting hotter every year), landscapers, plumbers, and electricians.
5. The economy continues to grow, and once we are through the current phase, it will grow even faster.  It’s important to keep a close eye on liquidity and costs to weather the storm, but it is just as important to prepare for a doubling of the growth rate once we emerge from this state.

But all this takes capital, and the fact is that many lenders are pulling back.

This is where small business lenders like Gulf Coast Small Business Lending come in. We provide SBA loans, USDA financing, and lines of credit (as well as conventional term loans for franchised operations). The SBA 7a and the USDA B&I programs are especially well-suited to support small businesses:

1. The SBA and USDA continue to support small businesses by working with banks to provide access to capital.  This is all we do at Gulf Coast Small Business Lending.
2. The flagship program of the SBA, the 7a loan program, does not require collateral, provides high advance rates and long amortization, and offers competitive rates.  We provide capital for business acquisitions, refinancing, real estate purchase, construction, partner-buyouts and start-ups.
3. While some banks and SBA lenders are pulling back, we continue to expand and expect the next 2 years to be our busiest.  We apply the same criteria we’ve always used: strong, experienced operators and good businesses.

So yes, these are unusual times.  But it’s business as usual here.

If you are interested in discussing an SBA loan, please reach out to our team of experienced SBA professionals.  You’ll find their contact information here: https://gulfcoastsba.com/our-people/

Following our most recent leadership meeting, my marketing director (not so) gently mentioned to me that I talk too much about the economy and capital markets.  I wasn’t offended; she is right, and I count on her for honest feedback.  

My days typically start with a cup of coffee and a scan of the economic news on CNBC and Market Watch, with a predictable detour into the primary sources of some the data discussed.  By my second cup, I am engrossed in trade wars, GDP data, yield-curves, and Chairman Powell’s and other Fed Governors’ remarks.  I rationalize to myself that these are all very important to our business of lending, and they are.

But that’s not our world. It is not where we operate day in and day out. Our world of SBA lending is made of America’s small business owners who are looking to grow, expand, better the lives of their families, employees, and communities.  That’s what I mean when I say “It’s Main Street, not Wall Street.”

The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) supports small businesses by working with financial organizations like ours to provide access to affordable capital. Without SBA loans, many of these owner-operators would simply not have access to capital and, consequently, their dreams would not be realized.

Here is a quick recap of how the SBA, specifically its flagship SBA 7(a) loan program, can support you, the business owner:

1. Flexible uses:  SBA loans support almost any imaginable business use, from the purchase of the business; the refinancing of debt; a buyout of a partner; generational transition of businesses; startups; and real estate acquisition, just to name a few of the more common requests we see.  If you aren’t sure whether the program can help you, give us a call and we will quickly sort it out.

2. No collateral required:  While many lenders focus on the purchase of real estate, you might be surprised to learn that the SBA does not require it, nor does it require hard assets as collateral if the loan proceeds are not used to purchase those.  We, and other like-minded SBA lenders, regularly finance just goodwill.  

3. High advance rates:  The SBA provides us with a 75% loan guarantee, essentially “collateralizing” our loans and encourages us to lend the maximum amount of capital the business can reasonably support.  Our loans are typically 80-90% loan to value (LTV), occasionally higher under the right circumstances.

4. Great terms:  While “conventional” loans to small business are marginally less expensive, SBA 7(a) loans (priced at a spread over the Prime lending rate) favorably compare to other forms of capital such as equity, bridge-loans, and others.  The repayment terms are usually longer as well (10-25 years). Loan size is as high as $5 million, and we are hopeful that this upper limit will increase at some future point.  SBA loans do not have balloon payments and are always fully amortizing.

5. Variety of capital solutions:  In addition to the flagship SBA 7(a) program, the SBA, through its partner lenders, offers additional programs such as the 504 (real estate and equipment), lines of credit, International Trade Loans, and special terms for veterans and other groups.  Additionally, banks like Gulf Coast Bank & Trust (our parent bank) can offer conventional loans and other services in conjunction with an SBA loan.  With all these options, we are able to customize a loan package to fit each borrowers’ unique needs.  We like to say that we work hard at finding a way to say YES (and we do just that)!

6. Ability Desire to do complex transaction:  One of our distinguishing features is our ability (and desire) to structure complicated transactions.  We don’t just rely on the borrower to structure a deal; we also use our decades of experience to bring fresh ideas to maximize the advance rate and make the transaction less risky to all involved.  Not all SBA lenders possess this capability, and if your bank is stumped by your request, give us a try.  Our experienced team would love to be of assistance.

I will continue to read the financial news and nerd-out over economic developments.  In a past life I spent many years working with very large corporations and very large deals, and I will always enjoy following along and talking about the latest financial news.  But, for many years, I also worked beside my father who was a small-business owner (multi-unit franchisee) and small businesses are in my blood.  My colleagues here at Gulf Coast Small Business Lending have a passion for helping small business owners realize their dreams.  You can find a listing of our SBA professionals along with their contact information here: https://gulfcoastsba.com/our-people/. We look forward to talking to you about the power of SBA lending and how it can help you start, grow, and/or build your business.  

At Gulf Coast Small Business Lending, WE’RE MAIN STREET.

Not the weather. 

As I write this, snow is falling, and the temperature is somewhere in the teens. Fahrenheit. I keep my weather app on Celsius because I speak to my mom (who lives overseas) every morning and she always asks how the weather is.

But I digress. 

As many of you know, I am a little obsessed with economics and current affairs, and it has certainly been a task keeping up with all the news and developments as of late! 

So first, the news. On Thursday February 20th, the Senate confirmed former Sen. Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., as Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). We are delighted to have her as the leader of such an important agency of the federal government and, speaking on behalf of the sixty of us working at Gulf Coast Small Business Lending, we look forward to continuing our work with SBA’s D.C. headquarters and regional SBA (and USDA) offices across the country.

Now back to the heat. Of all the economic news out there, I am currently fixated on inflation. A quick definition first: inflation refers to the rate of change (increase) of the price of a basket of goods, not the actual level. And the most popular measure of inflation is the Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) which is published monthly and closely followed by numerous constituents. 

After appearing to have been tamed last year, inflation is rearing its head again. Last week, CPI clocked in at a monthly increase of 0.5%, 3 percent annualized. The Federal Reserve seeks to achieve inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures. Many products have risen in price; for example, the price of a dozen eggs has doubled since a year ago. 

The most immediate implication, one that is especially important to our borrowers (and, therefore, to us), is that interest rates will not be further reduced in the short term. I am anticipating, at most, one small cut (0.25%) in 2025 and, perhaps, two in 2026.  

Without question, inflation is the most corrosive force in economics, eroding purchasing power and destroying savings. The Fed understands that and many years ago made inflation containment one of its two imperatives (the other being unemployment). I have full faith in the Fed’s ability to bring down inflation again, probably in a “soft-landing” manner, and hope that the close historical relationship with Treasury continues. 

But it will take time. Our economy is a big ship, generally headed in the right direction, and now in need of a course correction. As we anticipate the return to normal price levels, our Gulf Coast Small Business Lending team continues to support America’s small businesses by providing SBA loans to acquire, grow, refinance old debt, and invest in the future. 

If you’d like to discuss your borrowing needs or talk about the economy – please reach out. You can find contact information for our experienced team of SBA lending professionals here: https://gulfcoastsba.com/our-people/.

This past Thursday morning was a cold one (by Texas standards). I was finishing my first coffee, watching the snow coming down, and catching up on the news. A headline from a week ago and from a respected news outlet captured my attention: “The Incredible, World-Altering ‘Black Swan’ Events That Could Upend Life in 2025.” I can’t resist headlines like that and after refreshing my cup I immersed myself in the article.  

By definition, Black Swans are near-impossible to predict or prepare for and fixating on them leads to inaction.  So, let’s not dwell, but if you’re interested, Google the article and give me a call to share impressions.

I am certain about one thing and doing something(s) about it.  The next few years are bringing increased volatility.  Quick definition first (mine):  volatility is the degree of deviation from historical norms or an accepted standard. While generally viewed as problematic, volatility has as many ups as downs, and presents great opportunities as well; just watch out for bubbles!

I expect to see increased volatility across the board, manifested by increased financing activity. Which is where, as a lender, we come in.  To prepare we are undertaking three major initiatives:

First, we continue to increase our capacity to do more and bigger loans.  As part of a successful bank, capital has never been an issue for us and we continue to build up the team, improve our processes, and invest in technology to provide the best service we can.  We are also hopeful that both the U.S. SBA and USDA will up our loan limits on SBA 7a loans and USDA B&I loans.

Second, we are offering more financing solutions.  We’ve added lines of credit in addition to the traditional SBA 7a term loan product that Gulf Coast Small Business Lending has historically always offered.  We’re also offering USDA B&I loans, SBA 504 loans, and even conventional term debt.  And that’s not all!  Our SBA team also routinely collaborates with our sister companies at the bank to offer asset-based lending, factoring, and equipment finance.

Finally, we are shying away from things we consider “bubbly” or “highly speculative.”  We were never big on any of those, but the next few years we will see many more crypto-this, AI-that, and we simply don’t have the temperament for those heady deals.       

In summary, I am excited about the continued strength of the economy and the ongoing role of small businesses within it.  I expect the next few years to be our most exciting ones and we are ready for them!

“Foot on the accelerator with hands firmly gripping the steering wheel.”

If you have a deal to discuss or simply want to chat about volatility (or any other economic issue), please reach out.  You’ll find a listing of our sales team along with their contact information here:  https://gulfcoastsba.com/our-people/ or you can find me on LinkedIn here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nimi-natan/

The November edition of my blog is late, and here we are into December with Christmas lights up and Mariah Carey seemingly everywhere. The reason for my tardiness isn’t being overly lazy or busy; I was merely awaiting the appointment of a new US SBA administrator which, at the time of this writing (early morning Sunday, December 1), hasn’t arrived.

The topic of this month’s blog is “The Next Four Years,” and I will qualify it by saying that who the President name as SBA Administrator could change the outlook.  Which is actually what the headline should be: “Operating in an Uncertain Environment.”

There is a time and a place to talk politics, and this is neither.  But as a large-ish SBA lender, we can’t pretend politics aren’t on our minds. It is.  Constantly.  The SBA was created on July 30, 1953, by President Eisenhower with the signing of the Small Business Act.  Since then, with wide support among both political parties and all government branches, the SBA has been a critical contributor to the creation and support of small businesses and their employees.  So, it is only natural to ask what the outlook for SBA is with a new administration.

I don’t know.  

It is more difficult than ever to guess (never mind predict) what the various factions in the Executive and Legislative branches are thinking and what actions they will try to take.  The SBA was never as important and effective as it was during Trump’s first term, working with Congress, Treasury and the Fed to deliver emergency funds through PPP and EIDL and I am hopeful that it will continue to do that for the next four years (and beyond).

But as any business owner knows, planning, even in the time of uncertainty is critical. With that in mind, here are my expectations:

1. The economy will continue to roar.  As it has done in the past few quarters, with unemployment low, inflation in check, and solid GDP growth, the new administration doesn’t have to try very hard to maintain the current trajectory.  If deregulation takes effect, taxes are cut, and we step back from some politically-driven policies, the economy has the potential to grow even faster.
2. Price inflation may rear its head again.  With the combination of low unemployment, solid growth and the continued rise in asset values (think home prices and their impact on rent), it won’t take much to raise the CPI above comfortable levels.  I am especially wary of the potential impact of misguided tariff and immigration policies.  I am encouraged by the appointment of Bessent to Treasury and continued stability at the Fed.
3. The crypto bubble.  Putting aside my opinion on crypto (hint: it’s a scam), it is behaving like a bubble.  And you know what happens to bubbles.  To the extent that some of our customers are holding crypto on their balance sheets or playing in that vast casino, we consider the unknown prospects of the currency when evaluating a potential loan.  On a macro-level, the larger crypto gets the more chance we have for contagion when the bubble bursts.
4. I’ll be surprised.  I am fully expecting to wake up to news and scratch my head at least once or twice a month.  My plans take volatility into consideration by applying healthy safety margins to everything I do.

In summary, I am excited about the continued strength of the economy and the ongoing role of small businesses within it.  I am hopeful that during Trump’s second term and with a supportive Congress, the SBA program will continue to thrive.  Finally, I am wary of disruptions and distractions.

“Foot on the accelerator with both hands firmly gripping the steering wheel.”  

When you or your clients are considering an SBA loan, please reach out to our experienced team of SBA lending professionals.  You can find their contact information here:  https://gulfcoastsba.com/our-people/.  We are always monitoring the latest developments in SBA lending and will work with you and your clients to put together the most advantageous deal structure in the current environment.